Unofficialbmw.com

[Greenhornet84]

JRS,
I'd like to send yod a private messsage. Clear it ith Dale
Mark

[Greenhornet84]

Dale'
You only think you screwed up. Leave the Dome light on from Friday afternoon 'til Monday afternoon and you get one very dead battery. Dumb S... Happems
Mark

[JRS]

Alanfp,

Donaldan is correct. From a long-term perspective a losing stock may be an expectation only if you sell it. If the stock is low but is with a reputable corporation (e.g. IBM, PG, MCD, HNZ, etc) then they will _eventually_ come back. It could be 2-5 years but it's not a loss until you sell it.

For example, I bought 1000 shares of KCS back in early-2000 @ $9.10/share. Since then it plummetted to as low as $2.xx/share. I held my ground and today they closed at $11.02. Not much of a gain for almost 4 years but it's not a loss. I have, however, set a stop limit at $10.75/share.

For Day Traders, the 'acceptable' gain for a given day is $500-$1000. Jackpot is 'hit' at anything above $1000. Not a lot of manual/hard-work is done but a lot of 'homework' is done before and during the trading day.

With the help of Donaldans' info on XMSR (for today), I will 'play' a Day Trader move (but not actually put any money down as I am NOT a Day Trader)....

Day Traders often have pre-trading capabilities. XMSR will have several sell-short plays between 7:30am and 8:30am. Then at 11:00am (EST), the stock will turn upwards and recoup 50% of what it lost. In that last lag, the Day Traders will then "buy low and sell high". The eventuall gains are made during the "sell short" and then again at the "regular buy and sell". The key is to have a fast computer system with broadband access and access to up-to-the-minute Reuters news.

Let's see if I'm wrong. Anyone wanna gauge me ? Again, no pocket or portfolio money is going to be played. It's what I see happening tomorrow... based on news for today.

Thanks (Donaldan) for the last-minute info on XMSR.

Go look at CRKT... nice return for Tuesday... and during a down market... but an unstable stock.

Good night and may your E30's be safe tonight. I just picked up a Panasonic CD/MP3/WMA audio deck and am a bit worried that it'll get 'knicked' (an England term for 'stolen') while I'm asleep.

JRS

[alanfp]

Don (if I may be so bold!)

You're right, I wasn't talking about day-trading.

But I must take issue with your example of your KCS holding.

Using my principle, you would have sold the stock at $8.19, leading to a small loss. HOWEVER, the other part of the theory is that you buy stock when it has just risen by 10%, so you would have re-bought the stock at $2.xx + 10% and still be holding it now. Wouldn't that have been nice!

Secondly , don't believe anyone who tells you that large blue-chip companies don't go bust! Enron and Marconi spring to mind. Marconi's shares dropped from about £11 to 0.2p (YES 0.2 pence) in a couple of years. Thay never recovered. There were, of course plenty of smug buyers (and large fund managers, including my pension fund manager, UBS) at around 60p, saying just that - it's just a matter of time before they go back to the sort of price that they had been at previously.

[JRS]

Alanfp,

I stand corrected on the blue-chip stocks being the "best bet". I will, however, note them as the 'safer bet' - as long as there aren't any fishy accounting principles being used. Which, by the way, is now being audited on a quarterly basis (and "approved" by the CEO which basically puts him/her at responsibility).

On the KCS deal (sell at 10% loss and buy again at the low). The stock was volatile (and I knew it would be) and the all-time low took 1.5 years to reach (from the point I bought the stock). I could put your principles into play but the problem I would have is knowing when the bottom is hit - - and being able to sit around with "that much cash" without looking into other upwardly-mobile stocks...

... stocks such as this one: Click Here

Taser Corporation. Imagine buying 10,000 shares @ $3/share back in March 2003. If I did buy, then today I would be retired.

My high-risk bet is Cyberkey Corporation (CYKY). I've got 6,000 shares. Let the dice roll.

JRS

[k9fxr]

Taser justed annouced a 3/1 split, should continue to propell it.

[McK]

If you don't mind my asking, what criteria do you use to search for a stock? As far as I know I have never heard of Taser or CYKY. The only stock (yes, unfortunately that is supposed to be singular) I have that has done well (read: broke even or better) is APCC, bought in '01 and doubled. I only purchased them because their products were everywhere I looked; inexpensive but reliable computer UPC's and whatnot. Funny thing is that's also the only stock I bought that I hadn't ever heard about on CNBC... Do you have any tips for that first level of research?

[JRS]

quote:

---

Originally posted by k9fxr:
Taser justed annouced a 3/1 split, should continue to propell it.

---

That is correct. A stock split has (for the most part) been a good thing for stocks. For starters, it makes the stock more 'appealing' to the inexpensive-stock purchaser. The only 'stock' that hasn't split (and really, really should) is Warren Buffets' (Berkshire). I'm not certain but I think it's currently going for $125,000/share. Yep, 125K. But it keeps providing a healthy return and most of the money invested is from the "old school" folks (such as Rockefellers, Kennedy's, etc). Only millionaires need look.

After the stock-split, TASR should be in the $40-$45/share range. Which makes it approachable to more investors. Due to Homeland Security and current national/local law enforcement rules (e.g. "Why shoot when you can stun?"), I think Taser will rise back to the 100's in 2004 ... after the stock split.

But don't take my word for it. Do your homework...

JRS

[JRS]

quote:

---

Originally posted by McK 325iS:
If you don't mind my asking, what criteria do you use to search for a stock? As far as I know
I have never heard of Taser or CYKY. ...(snip)... Do you have any tips for that first level of research?

---

It may sound easy and it really is 'easy'. Just look around you and tell me what you notice is being sold
like it was going out of style. What new gadgets do you see that may take off just like the Ty Beanie
Babies ? What recent national/international 'shaking' incident just happened that will affect how countries
will respond ? For example, Mad Cow and SARS.
Each of these is a criteria as to which stock to search for. I'll take CYKY as my primary example and then
TWX (Time Warner), CSCO (Cisco Systems), and NT (Nortel)... gawd this posting could get long:

Anyone but myself own one of those USB-hard drives? They come in 32MB, 64MB, 128MB... 2GB models.
Linux, Mac OS, and XP support those devices without the need for drivers. Just plug it in and you
automatically get portable drive space. What computer does NOT have a USB port ? Anyone remember Iomega
and the "Zip" drive ? Well, Cyberkey has potential based on it's product and where it's marketing
it towards. Again, I could choose Lexar Media but I choose to have a higher risk - which may have
a higher reward. If CYKY has something that Lexar doesn't, what are the chances that they will merge/buyout
CYKY ?

Anyone own a Linksys product ? WiFi, wireless card, router ? Scratch that name off and guess
who owns them... Cisco Systems. They bought them last year. They had the home market share while
Cicso had the corporate market share. "If you can't beat them, buy them."

I suggest you subscribe to Newsweek, Fortune, and Kiplingers. I read Newsweek to see the trends and
'whats hot'. Fortune gives me information on the big-cap stocks. Kiplingers gives me a 'feel for the market'.
And the world around me tells me what's hot today.

In the Newsweek magazine that featured Saddam Hussein Captured, did anyone read the 3-page article on
Dick Parsons (CEO of TWX)? There's that one mini-section on the "VoIP bet". VoIP is "Voice over
Internet Protocol". Anyone care to guess what that is ?

Click Here to Find out.

Ok. Now how does that affect ATT (T) and Verizon, and Southwestern Bell ? Well, their International
rates will tumble. They've already succumbed to the loss of Long Distance rates. Cellular phones took
care of that. So, instead of 'losing'. They partner with telecommunications corporations to establish
a foothold on the emerging 'want'. Verizon and Microcell recently announced their partnership
with Nortel (NT) on revamping their systems.
Click Here for the Microcell announcement..
And for the "big" picture on how important VoIP will be in the coming years...
Click Here and read. It even mentions that Time Warner is betting on VoIP... Oh, yea - I read that
over 4 weeks ago. Luckily, I reacted while TWX was $17.99/share. Granted, TWX is in the mid 18's
and it's not a big gain but that was my exact sentiment when I bought CSCO @ $14.00/share. CSCO hit
$28.50 today. Oh, and Cisco does provide the equipment to make VoIP possible... and so does Nortel...
and Lucent... The hardware is one thing, software is another.

So, what software is needed for VoIP to run ? I'm not sure. But I am sure that IPVO may have
the answer. I haven't bought them (yet). But the $0.47/share price is quite tempting - but also volatile.

How do I search for these companies that specialize in a given sector ? Anyone else know how to
use Google.com besides myself ? Or better yet: Do you know how to find a part/product on eBay ?
Use the internet Search Engines... It's that easy. You'll find a company name and they use
Yahoo!Finance to do a Stock Symbol lookup. Or if the company is big and publicly traded, visit their
website and 9-out-of-10 they have their stock symbol posted on their site.

Ok. Let's talk about events from TODAY. Here's a couple of possible 'money-generating' articles:

More Mad Cow...
Sayonara Hubble Telescope.. Hello "Man on the moon".
Soda banned in one school system
Pfizer in trouble over a possible Viagra competitor ?

Ok. Each of those articles gives you an insight into what will be "hot" and what will be "not" come Monday.

I'll help investigate on the "Mad Cow" news. The overall goal is the containment and then erradication of
the disease. How does one "contain" if it can't track ? Now do a search engine lookup on the words:
"Bovine Cow Tracking tool farmer". Use various sequences and voila! eMerge Corporation
rises as one company that provides a tool to track cows. But they've already had a small run-up. Will
the US Government mandate that farmers use eMerge software to track bovine ? If they do, I expect
that stock to skyrocket.

Oh, and does anyone have friends in the IT sector who recently had their jobs "offshored" ?
Go look into Infosys and WiPro. The two leading competitors in India for offshore initiatives.
Nice stock increases in the past 6-months. Now don't blame India, the Philippines, Malaysia,
Singapore, China, or Pakistan for providing IT value without the high-dollar price tag. If you
drove a car that only took 92 octane gas and you found that gas selling for $0.10/gallon (but it was
25 miles away) - even you would drive 25 miles to buy a full tank. It's all about the savings.

I should know. I have friends who were offshored - and (luckily) I was outsourced to a major IT
corporation. And on that topic, look for major corporations that take on outsourcing initiatives.
Companies such as EDS, Accenture, and IBM.

Ok. I think I've made my point. If not, let me know and I'll help some more.

Before I leave, I'll give everyone a link to the stocks that are in my current 'radar'. I think I hit
almost all sectors (telco, finance, consumer goods, etc). I hope the link works.. here goes...
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cq?s=sunw+covd.ob+siri+twx+f+csco+nt+kcs+cyky.pk+icge+eag+ibm+bni+xmsr+china+insm+erth+actg+look+fnix.ob+avwi.ob+msev.ob+crkt.ob+apt+amd+msft+amr+u alaq.o
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cq?s=ualaq.ob+c+tscc+dtpi+tpth+ntii+itwo.pk+lu+tyc+wit+infy+imcl+mot+aklm+loud+ont+wcoeq.pk+dnap.ob+ljpc+

Have a great weekend.


JRS

[ 01-17-2004: Message edited by: JRS ]

[ 01-17-2004: Message edited by: JRS ]
[note from dale: broke the link into two sections to allow it to work. And added some line breaks to make the content
readable in Netscape.

[ 01-17-2004: Message edited by: dale ]

[JRS]

quote:

---

Originally posted by McK 325iS:
If you don't mind my asking, what criteria do you use to search for a stock? As far as I know I have never heard of Taser or CYKY. ...(snip)... Do you have any tips for that first level of research?

---

Well, to summarize it: Just listen to what people are 'talking' about. For example, you never heard of CYKY until Jan 16. On that day CYKY was trading $0.075-$0.08. Yesterday's close, it ended at $0.13. A (positive) difference of $0.06 for a "one-business-day" gain of 46%. I don't think anyone has a bank savings/checking/money market account that can give a return at that level.

You heard about APCC because of their UPS backup systems. Their stock climbed after major calamaties (e.g. power outages, etc) happened. Corporations needed to make sure their critical servers were operational.

Now I'll give you another one (which I think I already stated on a different thread): IPVO.

Go do the homework... if you want.

JRS

[ 01-21-2004: Message edited by: JRS ]

[alanfp]

Very interesting, especially reading all this after a gap of 3 weeks.

IPVO have risen from the $0.47 mentioned by J to $0.735.

TASER have been very volatile over the last few days. Lots of trading activity. Their directors have been selling quite a bit too! I always feel that director's trades can be another interesting source of information.

[JRS]

alanfp,

Insider trades are very important and guaged by the SEC. That was one of the items brought out on the Enron deal. Insiders (Execs and Directors) were able to sell their share but not the employees (or the funds).

TASR (Taser makers of the famour stun-gun) did great from mid-March 2003 to today. They even did a 3-for-1 stock split (and jumped another 10 points after the split). Some say their stock is overvalued and others say that it's a great pick up. I say "keep your portfolio diversified in three sectors: Technology, Health, and Consumer goods". Homeland Security is big. It's got big budget for 2004 (and beyond). If TSA is mandated to carry stunguns at all airports, then TASR would be a great pick up.

On another front, Disney (DIS) rejects the bid from Comcast but will remain open for other bidder. My gentlemans bet:

Time Warner (TWX) makes the next bid.

Any takers ?

JRS

[doublebeemer]

JRS,

You posted a lot of great resources for research. What or whom do you recommend for on line trading, actually doing the buying and selling?