Unofficialbmw.com

[Henry]

Whoops. I admit when I'm wrong. Now oil is cheap. Yesterday oil was expensive. Whoooo knows?

Let's see...It closes at an all time HIGH. And it is still less expensive than ever before. Or something like that.






http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/11/06/AR2007110602148.html?hpid=moreheadlines



Oil at Record Price? That Depends.
By Steven Mufson
Washington Post Staff Writer
Wednesday, November 7, 2007; Page D01


When it comes to the price of oil, there is no shortage of ways to calculate the all-time record price.

According to some calculations, a new high has already been set. But others say that a record is still $3 to $5 a barrel away. Economists don't even agree on when the previous record was set.


(Oil prices close at $96.70 per barrel, up $2.72, on the New York Mercantile Exchange) (By Frank Franklin Ii -- Associated Press)

Cambridge Energy Research Associates says the record is $99.04 a barrel, a level it said was reached in inflation-adjusted terms in April 1980.

The International Energy Agency agrees that April 1980 was the peak month, but it said that the price would translate to $101.70 a barrel today.

The Energy Department's Energy Information Administration has a completely different view. It said that the previous inflation-adjusted record, $93.48 a barrel, was set in January 1981. That would make the price reached yesterday, $96.70 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after a $2.72 increase, a new record closing price. The price reached $97.10 during trading." etc.

[Henry]

LATER TODAY...



http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/11/07/AR2007110700574.html


and...

"Stocks Plunge Amid Unease About Credit
By TIM PARADIS
The Associated Press
Wednesday, November 7, 2007; 4:08 PM


NEW YORK -- Wall Street suffered its second big drop in a week Wednesday, with investors worried about spreading fallout from the credit crisis at banks and about a dollar that just keeps getting weaker. The Dow Jones industrial average fell more than 360 points _ just about matching its plunge of last Thursday.

A passel of worries tormented investors, including the dollar, which swooned amid speculation that China will seek to diversify some of its foreign currency stockpiles beyond the greenback. Meanwhile, a record loss from General Motors Corp. owing to an accounting adjustment further dragged on sentiment.

Oil traded above $98 per barrel for the first time before retreating, and gold pushed higher, moves exacerbated by an anemic dollar.

The 13-nation euro hit a fresh record against the dollar _ rising to $1.4729 _ before falling back. The dollar fell not only against the euro but in Asia following a report that a senior Chinese political figure said China should diversify its $1.43 trillion foreign exchange reserves into the euro and other strong currencies." etc.

[Henry]

2 read



http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/11/09/AR2007110902573.html?hpid=topnews


Oil Price Rise Causes Global Shift in Wealth
Iran, Russia and Venezuela Feel the Benefits
By Steven Mufson
Washington Post Staff Writer
Saturday, November 10, 2007; Page A01


High oil prices are fueling one of the biggest transfers of wealth in history. Oil consumers are paying $4 billion to $5 billion more for crude oil every day than they did just five years ago, pumping more than $2 trillion into the coffers of oil companies and oil-producing nations this year alone.

The consequences are evident in minds and mortar: anger at Chinese motor-fuel pumps and inflated confidence in the Kremlin; new weapons in Chad and new petrochemical plants in Saudi Arabia; no-driving campaigns in South Korea and bigger sales for Toyota hybrid cars; a fiscal burden in Senegal and a bonanza in Brazil. In Burma, recent demonstrations were triggered by a government decision to raise fuel prices.


and


With crude oil prices nearing $100 a barrel, there is no end in sight to the redistribution of more than 1 percent of the world's gross domestic product.


The benefits, to the tune of $700 billion a year, are flowing to the world's oil-exporting countries.


in case this escaped your attention


Russia, the world's No. 2 oil exporter, shows oil's transformational impact in the political as well as the economic realm...


and...

Two of those nations -- Iran and Venezuela -- may be better able to defy

defy...whom where what ??? ??? ???

etc.

[Henry]

who ever thought...?





High Oil Prices Fuel Winter Heat Fears
By JERRY HARKAVY (Associated Press Writer)
From Associated Press
November 11, 2007 5:27 PM EST
PORTLAND, Maine - Nowhere in America, it seems, are people more apprehensive about the prospect of a $3-a-gallon winter than in Maine.

Motorists nationwide may grumble about gasoline prices now hovering around $3 for a gallon of regular, but home heating oil that soared this month to $3.09 a gallon - breaking the $3 barrier for the first time - is the focus of concern in Maine.

The reasons for Maine's vulnerability are clear:

It tops the list of states most dependent on oil heat, with 80 percent of homes relying on No. 2 oil or kerosene. It's one of the nation's coldest states, with the northern city of Caribou often singled out by the National Weather Service as having the lowest temperature among the Lower 48. In terms of per capita incomes, Maine is generally ranked as the poorest state in the Northeast. And lots of older homes lack adequate insulation, making them harder to heat.


So as heating oil prices hit record levels and the sound of oil furnaces kicking in becomes more frequent, plenty of people are worrying about whether they'll be able to scrape up enough money to keep warm.

"It's not just low-income people who are fearful. It's the working couple or families who are now going to have to choose between heating, literally eating, and of course driving," said John Kerry, director of the state Office of Energy Independence and Security.

For families struggling from paycheck to paycheck, the cost of filling a 275-gallon tank can easily blow a hole in the budget.

In Bath, Stacy Crowell, a 29-year-old mother of two whose husband works at the Bath Iron Works shipyard, turns down the thermostat, puts plastic sheeting on windows to keep out the cold and compares prices at local oil dealers before filling the tank.

The family, which burns 800 to 1,000 gallons of fuel a year, does not qualify for government assistance.

"Our incomes are just over the limit, so we can't get help for anything. Every program we try for, we're just over it," she said.

With the recent spike in prices, Crowell is wondering how long the family can afford to remain in the drafty old farmhouse that they bought five years ago when heating oil was much cheaper.

"We're thinking about selling in the spring because it takes so much to heat this place," she said. "We can't afford it."

The state, meanwhile, is planning for a worst-case scenario.

Gov. John Baldacci is prepared to convene an emergency task force in the event that fuel supplies are disrupted and shelters are needed to accommodate those who have run out of fuel. In the meantime, officials are pressing Congress for additional money for needy households and are looking to respond to any signs of price-gouging.

"There's a lot of fear out there," said Judy Frost, who directs the Low Income Home Energy Assistance program for needy residents in Franklin County. "Everyone's afraid to speculate about what the prices will be in January and February when the really cold temperatures set in."

While many recipients of federal LIHEAP money are elderly and on fixed incomes, Frost and others who administer the program are seeing an increasing number of applications from the younger working poor who may not quality for benefits under eligibility guidelines.

"We're finding more and more people applying who are over income because they're so afraid that they're not going to be able to make ends meet and pay for oil this winter," said Eleanor West, the LIHEAP director for Hancock and Washington counties.

The surge in prices has been dramatic.

The state energy office, which conducts a weekly price survey during the heating season, said its latest average price of $3.09 was up 24 cents in just one week and was 89 cents a gallon higher than a year ago.

Nationally, the average price was $3.11, according to the Energy Information Administration. Some 8.1 million of the nation's 107 million households use heating oil, most of them in the Northeast.

On average, Maine homes burn roughly 850 gallons a year, a cost of more than $2,600 at current prices.


etc. but you already know the rest of the article without reading it

[Henry]

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Commodities/OPEC_may_raise_output_if_crude_rules_above_90/articleshow/2544535.cms

CAREFULLY READ THIS...


MUMBAI: Oil price, which is hovering around $95 a barrel in international markets, paused after jumping by nearly $3 a barrel on Wednesday on signals from OPEC that production may not be increased.

Analysts, however, are of the view that if oil continues to remain above $90 in the next few weeks, then the possibility of raising the output could resurface.

In domestic market, on MCX the price is currently Rs 3,689 per a barrel in November. The resistence stands at Rs 3,833 per barrel, while the support stands at Rs 3,580. Subodh Gupta of Anand Rathi Commodities indicated that OPEC ministers are currently keenly observing the price movement. “It is expected that, if oil falls below $85 then OPEC may not raise the output,” he said.


NOW...


"Posted by donaldan : 06 Nov 2007 03:03 Post subject:
If one defines traders as those buying and selling oil (or oil instruments/contracts). Then of course, all oil prices are determined by "traders." I have not heard of politicians buying and selling oil. Has anybody? Politicians may set oil priing policy/guideline but still all buying and selling are done by "traders." Therefore buyers and sellers ultimately determine pricing, not politicians. "



HOWEVER, THE OFFICIAL WORD ON THE SUBJECT COMPLIMENTS OF OUR LOCAL OPEC IS...


"“It is expected that, if oil falls below $85 then OPEC may not raise the output,” he said."


Read the opec and analyist quotes..."if oil falls below $85 then OPEC may not raise the output,” while..."Analysts, however, are of the view that if oil continues to remain above $90 in the next few weeks, then the possibility of raising the output could resurface."


Also re-read mr d ..."Politicians may set oil priing policy/guideline but still all buying and selling are done by "traders." Therefore buyers and sellers ultimately determine pricing, not politicians. "



opec is not traders. opec is politician. buy and sell of oil by traders is price centric in the micro fluctuation. however, the macro picture...the
celler/ceiling is, per this analyis, political. $93-$97 range is trade. $30-$97 is political. that's my opinion

[Henry]

http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/latest/200712290815/price_of_oil_rises


This is from Radio New Zealand News...Yes.


Just a little bit...you can open this for the remainder of the article.

"Oil rose in price on Friday on concerns about supplies in the United States, the slumping dollar and mounting tensions in Pakistan and northern Iraq.
US crude traded up 59 cents to $US97.21 per barrel by 1852 GMT. London Brent gained 50 cents to $US95.28 per barrel.
A government report on Thursday showed unexpectedly large draws in crude and distillate inventories in the United States. Crude inventories there are now at their lowest level in nearly three years."



"an informed consumer is our best customer"*

*attributed to Sy Syms, a NYC Merchant and Clothier

[Henry]

The Formula...a 1980 film with George C.Scott and Marlo Brando...Netflix has it on dvd.




Of course, this is quite the norm and consequence of a supply and demand driven process within a free and apolitical market.

And the earth, made in 6 days, is six thousand years old.






http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/02/AR2008010200589.html?hpid=moreheadlines


The first few paragraphs...


Oil Futures Rise to $100 a Barrel

TOOLBOX
Resize Text
Save/Share +
Print This E-mail This
WHO'S BLOGGING
» Links to this article
The Associated Press
Wednesday, January 2, 2008; 1:02 PM
NEW YORK -- Oil prices soared to $100 a barrel Wednesday for the first time ever, reaching that milestone amid an unshakeable view that global demand for oil and petroleum products will continue to outstrip supplies.

Surging economies in China and India fed by oil and gasoline have sent prices soaring over the past year, while tensions in oil producing nations like Nigeria and Iran have increasingly made investors nervous and invited speculators to drive prices even higher.

Violence in Nigeria helped give crude the final push over $100. Bands of armed men invaded Port Harcourt, the center of Nigeria's oil industry Tuesday, attacking two police stations and raiding the lobby of a major hotel. Word that several Mexican oil export ports were closed due to rough weather added to the gains, as did a report that OPEC may not be able to meet its share of global oil demand by 2024.

Light, sweet crude for January delivery rose $4.02 to $100 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange... etc.

[Henry]

Looks as if we're running outta oil. Shucks. Looks as if it's going to rise to $200- in 10 years and $150- in five.

However, in 2007, according to the article..." In 2007 the price of oil jumped 57 percent due to the weak dollar, worries about oil reserves and world political turbulence, said Kemfert."

So...why wait 5 years??? Why not 5 months???

Now...brush off that stack of old newspapers in your garage...the ones you've been saving back from 35 years ago.

Your wife threw them out you say. Bad girl.

Fortunately, we have the newspaper "morgue" for back issues...microfiche (how old school retro) or the files via the internet/Google search.

And you will look for and you shall find more articles then you care to digest that date to the '73 oil "crisis." And you are looking for the articles that emphatically state we're running outta oil...soon...gotta drill Alaska...gotta drill the ocean...gotta drill everything, everywhere, all over.
And we'll still gonna be outta oil yesterday. Said similar in 1979...during that oil "crisis."

Fortunately, we are not having a crisis right now. Phew. Relief me some.

Here...read this... http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/07/29/AR2005072901672.html

For instance and from this July 2005 article...

"But it is oil that gets most of the attention. Prices around $60 a barrel, driven by high demand growth, are fueling the fear of imminent shortage"

Or...


"This is not the first time that the world has "run out of oil." It's more like the fifth. Cycles of shortage and surplus characterize the entire history of the oil industry. A similar fear of shortage after World War I was one of the main drivers for cobbling together the three easternmost provinces of the defunct Ottoman Turkish Empire to create Iraq. In more recent times, the "permanent oil shortage" of the 1970s gave way to the glut and price collapse of the 1980s."

Heck, you can even buy this article on line if you want a taste...


GASOLINE SUPPLY DROPS ACROSS U.S.; Maximums Imposed Concern Mounting as Curbs Nixon Asked Fail to Stem E-risk Run on Stations Gasoline Supply Across U.S. Drops Despite Voluntary Curbs 1 P.M. Closing

By DAVID A. ANDELMAN
December 9, 1973, Sunday <nttimes>
Section: GN, Page 1, 1053 words
Service-station owners and their spokesmen throughout the country expressed concern yesterday over a gasoline drought brought on by tight supplies and a run on their pumps.


Which leads us with that nastiest of nasties...the unmentionable of unmentionables...the "G" word. "Greed." But I doubt that. We're too nice to succumb to greed.

From today's Spiegel...


http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,1518,526437,00.html




English Site> Business Print | E-Mail | Feedback | Share January 03, 2008
Font:
SURGING ENERGY DEMAND
Oil Price Could Hit $200, Says German Institute

Wednesday's record oil price of $100 per barrel of crude marks a long-term upward trend which could see oil prices reach $150 in five years and $200 in 10 years, says one of Germany's leading economic institutes.

One of Germany's leading economic institutes has predicted that the price of oil will rise to $150 per barrel in five years and $200 in 10 years.
"Oil supplies are becoming increasingly scarce and that will continue to drive up prices," Claudia Kemfert, the energy expert of the DIW German Institute for Economic Research, told Berliner Zeitung newspaper.

She said the most recent surge in oil prices which drove the price ber barrel to over $100 on Wednesday was due to speculative buying. "The share of the oil price attributable to speculation is likely to be around 20 percent," she said, adding that the price was likely to reach $105 in the coming weeks.

The surge in crude oil to a record of $100 in trading on Wednesday shocked Wall Street on the first day of trading in 2008. In 2007 the price of oil jumped 57 percent due to the weak dollar, worries about oil reserves and world political turbulence, said Kemfert.

etc.

[Henry]

For your information...SOMETHING I POSTED 0N OCTOBER 3, 2006...

I guess the Chinese have almost doubled their oil consumption during the past 15 months. And the hurricane. I almost forgot about the hurricane. The frigid Autumn. I remember that...the coldest Autumn on record. And, finally, summer petro use. We used soooo much. Make sense to me.





Joined: 03 Apr 2001
Posts: 2576
Location: NYC
Posted: Tue Oct 03, 2006 4:54 pm Post subject: Oil Drops Below $60.00...
So now it's less then $60.00 per. And I recall a gibberish essay saying the $75.00 price was the marketplace at work...supply and demand etc..

Now winter is approaching and the demand for oil is on the rise. The price always goes up around now because of the winter demand. Usual crapola...hurricane, winter, whatever the reason...there's always a reason.

But now it's fallen to -$60.00. And if there's a knuckle head essay out there telling you it supply and demand...you're into the koolaid zone.

Because this time...

It's Election Day stupid

[Henry]

for the record...


http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/05/AR2008010501995.html?hpid=moreheadlines



OPEC Not to Blame For High Oil Prices, Its President Says
TOOLBOX
Resize Text
Save/Share +
Print This E-mail This
COMMENT
washingtonpost.com readers have posted 18 comments about this item.
View All Comments »
POST A COMMENT
Your washingtonpost.com User ID, jato1, will be displayed with your comment.


Discussion Policy
WHO'S BLOGGING
» Links to this article
By Ahmed Rouaba and Maher Chmaytelli
Bloomberg
Sunday, January 6, 2008; Page A13
OPEC, the producer of more than 40 percent of the world's oil, is supplying the international market with enough crude and cannot be blamed for record prices, the group's new president said Saturday.

"There is enough oil in the market," Chakib Khelil, the Algerian oil minister who took over OPEC's rotating presidency for 2008, told reporters in Algiers. "It's the problems in Nigeria, in Pakistan and the credit crisis caused by the U.S. subprime-mortgage-market collapse that caused prices to increase."

He declined to say whether the 13-member Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries might decide to raise output to curb prices when it meets Feb. 1 to discuss production targets at its headquarters in Vienna. "If we see that the U.S. economy has moved into a recession, we won't need to increase production because that will reduce demand" for oil, he said. etc.etc.etc.

[Henry]

A Refresher From the Economic Times of India...11.16.07.

OPEC may raise output if crude rules above $90
16 Nov, 2007, 0208 hrs IST,Deepa Krishnan, TNN

Analysts, however, are of the view that if oil continues to remain above $90 in the next few weeks, then the possibility of raising the output could resurface.


“This hedging has already helped drive the price to around $100 a barrel. Crude oil always trade in a pattern ranging $15 and accordingly the prices are likely to oscillate between $85-100 in the months ahead,” he said.


AND perhaps this link might be informative...

http://www.wtrg.com/prices.htm



Meanwhile in the washingtonpost:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/17/AR2008011700744.html

Oil Falls on Bernanke Comments

By JOHN WILEN
The Associated Press
Thursday, January 17, 2008; 3:36 PM


NEW YORK -- Oil futures fell Thursday after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said he expects slower growth in 2008, but no recession.

Bernanke's comments added to the negative economic sentiment that has been the market's dominant driver in recent days, pushing prices down nearly $10 from their record over $100 a barrel two weeks ago. Despite Bernanke's comments, many investors fear a recession is imminent.

"There's a major concern that if the economy slips into recession, demand for oil will slip," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago.

Bernanke's comments caused oil prices to give up earlier gains of more than $1 that had come on a weaker dollar and forecasts of colder temperatures.

Light, sweet crude for February delivery fell 71 cents to settle at $90.13 on the New York Mercantile Exchange after rising as high as $92.19 earlier.





...so the rock's been bled dry and the milk's been let outta the bottle.

at least for the average guy it's so.

"MARKETS Jan 17; Market Close
DJIA 12,159.21 -306.95 "

[Henry]

This time it's without all the fuss of a 96 or 95 or 97 or 99.35. The jump is straight up to 100! Notice how easy it is to get there??? Already been there...returning to the familiar.

Now go ahead and rent the dvd 1980 film, "The Formula." Of course, if you don't care for Marlon Brando or George C. Scott then you can rent the Best Speeches of "Calvin Coolidge" or the "Warran G. Harding Files." I did and I was thrilled. Very hot stuff they are...


Or...you can google "The Formula" and look at the promos. Specifically, check out the photo of Marlon Brando in character.

Yes, check THAT out.





http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/02/19/AR2008021900306.html


Oil Jumps Above $100 on Refinery Outage

Plumes of smoke rise after an explosion at an Alon USA oil refinery in Big Spring, Texas on Monday, Feb. 18, 2008. The violent blast shook buildings miles away and injured at least four people, the mayor said. (AP Photo/Bob Price) (Bob Price - AP)

Tuesday, February 19, 2008; 3:08 PM
NEW YORK -- Oil futures shot higher Tuesday, closing above $100 for the first time as investors bet that crude prices will keep climbing despite evidence of plentiful supplies and falling demand. At the pump, gas prices rose further above $3 a gallon.

There was no single driver behind oil's sharp price jump; investors seized on an explosion at a 67,000 barrel per day refinery in Texas, the falling dollar, the possibility that OPEC may cut production next month, and continuing tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela.

Gasoline and heating oil prices appeared to be leading the advance, rising faster in percentage terms than oil due to the explosion Monday at Alon USA's Big Spring, Texas, refinery, which could be shuttered for two months.

"The refinery fire in Texas is making people a little concerned," said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research Inc. in Amherst, Mass.

Etcetera, Etcetera and another because I really like you... Etcetera

[Henry]

Chew on this for breakfast.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/02/19/AR2008021900306.html?hpid=topnews

Oil Closes Over $100 for 1st Time
Supply, Financial Factors Cited in Spike

By Steven Mufson
Washington Post Staff Writer
Wednesday, February 20, 2008; Page D01

"The price of crude oil closed over $100 for the first time yesterday on the New York Mercantile Exchange, rattling stock markets and marking a milestone in the relentless rise in petroleum prices over the past five years.

The high oil price, which rivals the inflation-adjusted peak set during the early days of the Iran-Iraq war nearly three decades ago, has drained cash from the pockets of consumers just when the slowing economy could use a spending boost. And it reinforced fears that oil prices, which have long fluctuated with political and economic cycles, may never again drop to past levels.

The price hit a new high of $100.10 a barrel before settling at $100.01 a barrel, up $4.51, when the market closed at 2:30 p.m. The price in late electronic trading dropped only slightly, to $99.99 a barrel.

The oil price increase erased a 157-point rally in the Dow Jones industrial average, hurting the shares of retailers and technology firms as investors worried that consumer spending could be diverted to gasoline pumps from stores.

The rapid 4.7 percent price increase yesterday was spurred in part by concern about crude oil supplies. The president of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Chakib Khelil, said last week that there was no need to boost production to dampen high prices. Instead, he and other oil ministers have suggested that OPEC might even cut output at its March 5 meeting to make sure that an economic slowdown in the United States doesn't lower prices.

In addition, traders fretted that political violence in Nigeria and Iraq could disrupt exports from those nations.

But with U.S. stocks of crude oil and refined products comfortably within historical ranges, and with signs that U.S. gasoline consumption has stopped growing, analysts said yesterday's jump in prices was caused by financial factors as much as supply"...etc.

[Henry]

Are we talking $4.00 a gallon gas this summer??? Is that for regular???

By the way...inflation adjusted...we now match that whatever it is high number of the early 1980's. OK...we're now at the inflation adjusted high. So you holdouts can scratch the inflation adjusted it's still cheaper argument.

Though must say as the cost per gal increased this past year you've been mute.

Let me guess why.

[Henry]

I recall that during the 1950's (50 years ago) when my dad drove around looking to save a cent or a cent and a half on a gallon of fuel for our light green '56 Chevy 110 sedan...the stations gave away glasses, and other stuff. We actually had a set of very nice juice glasses with some 1958 iconic (Oh I don't actually remember...but the usual suspects shall do) cowboys or space men on them. Space men were particularly popular back then.

Anyway, now we're doing the give aways. Except it's not glasses with let's say Hopalong Cassidy or the Lone Ranger or Zorro, an American flag,or the Declaration of Independence imprinted on the juice glass (that would be a touch). Rather, our give away (if you haven't noticed) is in form of skyscrapers and cities.

Same as in 1970's when that oil boom fueled same. Said back then to make hay way while sun shines...we're depleting a finite resource hence the building investment. Of course price subsequently crashed and expensive buiding (though probably not the partying) stopped. Hence, this still could be cyclical and not a forever moment.

Perhaps.

Meanwhile, we should have apt recognition. How about statues, parks and ocean liners named in honor of the highest producing gas stations in usa. For instance, instead of a huge building in some oil producing place named for a whatever...we could have a building named for...lets say "Exit 297 I-40 West" or "Grove Street and Spear Avenue, Willis Park Indiana." Or simply name a building..."Fred" to honor a gas jockey.

Where's the gratitude?