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Oil Economics

 
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donaldan



Joined: 01 Jul 2001
Posts: 1881
Location: Ft. Myers, FL

PostPosted: Sat Sep 23, 2006 8:35 am    Post subject: Oil Economics Reply with quote

Since our discussions have evolved to the question of international oil situation, let us start a new thread.

I just returned from a trip to China, I can tell you from anecdotal observations that their increased use of energy, including enormous consumption of diesel fuel, has created an "atmosphere of shortage." One reason for the perceived shortage may be due to ineffiecient distribution system much of which the government has a hand in it. Then, it may also be an intentional government policy to make the population aware of international oil situation.

What surprised me was voluntary restriction of many filling stations in dispensing diesel fuel. One long distance bus I was on was restricted to fill only Rmb 600 (=$76.00) which is only fraction of the need of that bus. The bus driver was able to pursuade the station to let him move his bus to a second pump to get his additional fill.

Outside the larger cities, power interuptions have been a regular occurance. In those places, some of the larger hotels are equipped with auxillary diesel generators so the power interuption is not inconveniencing the guests. But private homes can experience power stoppage as long as 8 hours a day, typically in the evening/night when the need for lighting is most critical.

Now, one can undersatnd why the oil diplomacy is among the top Chinese international priorities. I can also appreciate how Americans have managed our energy situation relative to theirs. At least we don't have power intruptions and pump restrictions. By the way the Chinese are paying about the same price for gas but their average income is way way below ours.
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Henry



Joined: 03 Apr 2001
Posts: 2878
Location: NYC

PostPosted: Sat Sep 23, 2006 11:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Don...You paint an interesting picture. So many people. So much radical change compacted into a brief time. I just wonder if the power outages are equally distributed by economic class and geography. Or whether the distribution favors certain people/areas. Who knows???

When visiting my relative in Tucson I sometime walk over to the east/west tracks and look at the freight trains heading east. Miles and miles of trains 24 hours a day and virtually all the containers bearing Chinese labels.

One thinks they could afford a bit of electricity.

33 years ago...the use of oil as a weapon against us began. They (urabs/producer nations)* had the help of oil companies who were not just importers or retailers but Partners in this overnight destabilization of a usa we can now fondly look back upon.

For a solid third of a century (with a very very few exceptions)*** we Did Not Respond to this Threat and We Did Not Meet The Challenge of a Future Staring Us In the Face. The auto industry did as little as possible**, the clinton admin, reagan admin, ford admin, bush&bush offered no leadership outta this. No sustained support of technology development, no meaningful tax for technology trades, no displacement tax on engines. Minimal leadership.

I'll end this here...just read in buzness section that it takes the sale of eleven (11) small(er) vehicles to equal the manufacturers profit from the sale of one (1) suv.

We're not stupid. We are leaders in technology. And for a third of a century the American public stood by and fed this monsta $ at the gas pump. Leadership did nothing. I recall a Wall St. Journal news article from clinton years...early 90's (at the beginning of the suv boom) saying we'd live to regret the suv and increase in fuel consumption. Still no leadership.

And no one withheld the information from us for 33 years. We had all the information needed to fight this within the continental usa. And almost nothing was done up through today and onto tomorrow.

So now we pay the extra high price. That's another story.


*in my opinion

**Emission and economy compliance to but little else.*

***carter


Last edited by Henry on Sat Sep 23, 2006 11:50 am; edited 2 times in total
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Henry



Joined: 03 Apr 2001
Posts: 2878
Location: NYC

PostPosted: Sat Sep 23, 2006 11:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

delete...posting error
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donaldan



Joined: 01 Jul 2001
Posts: 1881
Location: Ft. Myers, FL

PostPosted: Sat Sep 23, 2006 3:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

"One thinks they could afford a bit of electricity. "

In reality, China is a country of gross inequality in wealth distribution. Growth of income remains concentrated in the larger east coast cities with modern infrastructures and they form the manufacturing bases that supply the rest of the world. There, millionaires are being created every day. Vast area outside these cities however, lies many poor communities, basically still living in the third world economy. Within one generation, some 350 million poor people migrated to the coastal ciites - the largest human migration in history. That 350 million number is more than the total population of the USA. The rapid increase in energy usage is taxing every resource to the limit.

It is more than just a question of money. Where and how energy can be explored or imported and properly distributed is a political/structural/management nightmare. We have a well developed free enterprising capitalistic system with sophisticated financial market to support its implementation. China is only beginning to transition from a highly inefficient (and corrupt by our standard) monolithic government management to a quasi-capitalistic and semi-private enterprise system.

In a way, that is their business. Why do we even bother to know. Yet, we surely can learn a lesson or two. Wink
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